Canada's housing recovery slows - Measured Rebound as provincial gaps widen
Canada's housing recovery slows - Measured Rebound as provincial gaps widen
CREA's April 2025 revision slows the expected comeback and compresses upside into a handful of provinces. National transactions are forecast at 482,673 in 2025 and 496,487 in 2026. The national average price is projected to dip to $687,898 in 2025 before a modest rise to $696,074 in 2026.
National home sales forecast (2025)
482,673
CREA's projected number of transactions for 2025.
National average price forecast (2025)
$687,898
CREA's national average home price forecast for 2025.
National home sales forecast (2026)
496,487
CREA's projected number of transactions for 2026.
SLOW, UNEVEN REBOUND
The immediate split: national activity barely up while a few provinces lead gains
SALES GROWTH REMAINS MODEST NATIONWIDE
- National sales are forecast to rise only 1.1% in 2025. CREA projects 482,673 transactions in 2025 versus an estimated 477,500 in 2024, signalling only a slight pickup.
- The national average price is expected to fall in 2025. CREA forecasts the average to decline -0.3% to $687,898 in 2025 from the 2024 estimate of $689,000.
- 2026 shows only modest follow-through from the rebound. Sales are forecast at 496,487 in 2026 while the national average price is projected to rise just 1.2% to $696,074.
- Alberta and Saskatchewan are singled out for stronger upside. The source cites stronger local economies and relative affordability as drivers that could lift prices there through 2026.
- British Columbia and Ontario are likely to see more listings temper price gains. Increased inventory combined with steady rates is expected to draw more buyers but limit national price growth.
477,500
Estimated national transactions in 2024
$689,000
Estimated national average price in 2024
-0.3%
Annual change in national average price (2025 vs 2024)
Projected 2025 transaction volumes by city, showing concentration in larger hubs
Synthetic city-level distribution built to illustrate regional concentration around CREA national totals (see text for source numbers).
City average prices: 2024 estimate, 2025 forecast and 2026 projection
Synthetic city-level prices constructed around CREA national forecasts to illustrate regional divergence.
2024 est.2025 fcast2026 proj
National sales are barely above 2024 levels at 482,673 in 2025. That small uptick, paired with a 2025 price dip to $687,898, means most upside will be concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan rather than spread evenly across provinces.
RATE PAUSE EFFECT
How the prior rate cycle set up a slower, uneven rebound
CREA's April 2025 forecast reset follows years of shock and stabilization
CREA revised its outlook in April 2025 after the aggressive rate-hiking cycle earlier this decade. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady for most of 2025, easing immediate financing pressure. Pent-up demand is returning gradually rather than all at once.
COSTS VS SUPPLY GAP
Financing stability reduces pressure but supply differences create divergent outcomes
Why modest national gains will not erase local divergences
PRICE AND SALES DIFFERENCE BY PROVINCE
- Rates are expected to remain largely unchanged through most of 2025. That stability reduces immediate upward pressure on monthly financing costs and is the central reason CREA trimmed the rebound's pace.
- The national average price is forecast to dip in 2025 then recover in 2026. CREA projects -0.3% in 2025 to $687,898 followed by +1.2% in 2026 to $696,074.
- Some provinces face supply shortages that will lift local prices. CREA specifically points to Alberta and Saskatchewan as areas where limited supply and stronger local economies could push prices higher through 2026.
- In major coastal hubs, increased listings are expected to temper price gains. The report links higher inventory in British Columbia and Ontario to slower price growth despite more buyer activity.
- External shocks could still overturn the forecast quickly. The report calls out recession risk, renewed inflation, trade tensions, and immigration policy shifts as plausible disruptors.
Forecasted 2025 price change by province (2025 vs 2024) highlights winners and losers
Synthetic province-level percent changes reflecting the report's national -0.3% with stronger pockets in Prairie provinces.
Sales (2024 est., 2025 fcast, 2026 proj) across six large provinces shows uneven volume gains
Synthetic provincial sales counts scaled to align with CREA national totals and narrative.
2024 est.2025 fcast2026 proj
Prairie provinces are the main upside contributors. With Alberta and Saskatchewan forecasted to post positive price changes while the national price change is -0.3% in 2025, local supply tightness will determine whether those gains outpace the modest national pace.
NEAR-TERM TRIGGERS
Events to watch that point to a slower rebound through 2026
Policy decisions, inventory shifts and demand signals that will shape the recovery
The coming months will prove whether steady rates translate into steady demand or if shocks derail the recovery. Watch immigration rules, trade tensions, and local inventory shifts. Those milestones will determine the speed and breadth of the rebound into 2026.
April 2025 CREA revision, steady rates and gradual sales gains through 2026 imply measured growth ahead
Key dated milestones referenced in the April 2025 report and the surrounding economic context.
LARGE-SCALE TREND MAP
Where the upside concentrates
Multi-year trend lines and provincial rankings expose the uneven recovery under CREA's forecast
Below are institutional-grade visuals plotting extended trends and cross-province comparisons to show where momentum concentrates. These charts synthesize CREA's national pivots with region-level dynamics and plausible city splits.
National transactions (000s) and price index (2018=100) 2018-2026 showing modest recovery to 2026
Synthetic long-run series created to demonstrate the trajectory CREA outlines for 2025-2026.
Transactions (000s)Price index (2018=100)
Projected percent change in average price 2024-2026 by province highlights concentrated upside
Synthetic provincial percent-change ranking emphasizing the report's narrative: modest national change with stronger Prairie growth.
Long-term trend lines show a shallow national rebound concentrated in a few provinces. With transactions heading from 477,500 in 2024 to 482,673 in 2025 and 496,487 in 2026, most upside is concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan rather than across all regions.
ANALYSIS
What This Means — By Who You Are
BUYERS
- Prioritize affordability assessment: With the national average price forecasted at $687,898 in 2025 and only a 1.2% rise in 2026, buyers face a window where local affordability and inventory matter more than timing.
- Watch local listings and supply: The analysis shows Alberta and Saskatchewan as stronger price pockets, so prospective buyers should monitor local inventory levels before committing.
- Model financing at current rates: The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates for most of 2025, so buyers can plan payments based on prevailing rates rather than counting on near-term rate relief.
SELLERS
- Set realistic price expectations: National price forecasts point to a -0.3% change in 2025 with only modest growth in 2026, so sellers should align asking prices with local demand conditions.
- Invest in stronger presentation where listings rise: The report indicates increased listings in British Columbia and Ontario, so sellers in those provinces may need superior presentation and pricing to attract offers.
- Monitor provincial demand pockets: Stronger sales and price upside are concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, meaning sellers there may still capture premium pricing if supply remains tight.
DEVELOPERS
- Recalibrate delivery schedules to provincial demand: With national transactions forecast at 482,673 in 2025 and 496,487 in 2026, developers should align completions to specific provinces rather than assuming uniform absorption.
- Prioritize affordable product in growth provinces: The data points to Alberta and Saskatchewan as growth areas, so affordable new supply in those provinces is more likely to find steady demand.
- Stress test projects for policy and trade shocks: The report flags immigration and trade risks that could quickly curtail demand, so project plans should include contingencies for slower absorption.
The verdict: CREA's April 2025 revision signals a measured national rebound concentrated in a few provinces: transactions are forecast at 482,673 in 2025 (up from 477,500 in 2024) and 496,487 in 2026, while the national average price is expected to dip -0.3% to $687,898 in 2025 before edging up +1.2% to $696,074 in 2026, with most upside coming from Alberta and Saskatchewan. Expect a slow, regionally uneven rebound where provincial supply tightness and policy developments—not a nationwide surge—will determine who captures outsized gains.
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